The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine

Welcome to The Ringer‘s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential — a historically strong predictor of future success — with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Today’s Games

Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Nets 36% Celtics 64% Celtics by 4.5
Raptors 48% 76ers 52% 76ers at 0.5
Timberwolves 44% Grizzlies 56% Grizzlies at 2
Jazz 61% Mavericks 39% Jazz by 3.5

Right now, the Nets are favored to win their series 4% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 10%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 1%.

Right now, the Raptors are favored to win their series 3% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 6%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.

Right now, the Timberwolves are favored to win their series 16% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 28%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 6%.

Right now, the Jazz are favored to win their series 41% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 58%. But if they lose today, those odds will fall to about 15%.

We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason Odds

Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Celtics 96% 75% 54% 30%
Suns 88% 61% 34% 20%
Warriors 98% 54% 29% 16%
Grizzlies 84% 41% 21% 12%
Heat 89% 57% 23% 10%
Jazz 41% 18% 8% 4%
76ers 97% 38% 11% 3%
Bucks 86% 22% 10% 3%
Mavericks 59% 19% 6% 2%
Timberwolves 16% 4% 1% <1%
Hawks 11% 4% 1% <1%
Nets 4% 2% 1% <1%
Pelicans 12% 3% <1% <1%
Bulls 14% 1% <1% <1%
Raptors 3% 1% <1% <1%
Nuggets 2% <1% <1% <1%

How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in each series.

Heat vs. Hawks

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Heat in 4 reach
Heat in 5 44%
Heat in 6 27%
Heat in 7 18%
Hawks in 4 reach
Hawks in 5 reach
Hawks in 6 4%
Hawks in 7 7%

Celtics vs. Nets

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Celtics in 4 41%
Celtics in 5 33%
Celtics in 6 14%
Celtics in 7 8%
Nets in 4 reach
Nets in 5 reach
Nets in 6 1%
Nets in 7 3%


Bucks vs. Bulls

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Bucks in 4 reach
Bucks in 5 41%
Bucks in 6 27%
Bucks in 7 19%
Bulls in 4 reach
Bulls in 5 reach
Bulls in 6 6%
Bulls in 7 8%

76ers vs. Raptors

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
76ers in 4 53%
76ers in 5 30%
76ers in 6 9%
76ers in 7 6%
Raptors in 4 reach
Raptors in 5 reach
Raptors in 6 reach
Raptors in 7 3%

Suns vs. Pelicans

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Suns in 4 reach
Suns in 5 35%
Suns in 6 34%
Suns in 7 19%
Pelicans in 4 reach
Pelicans in 5 reach
Pelicans in 6 5%
Pelicans in 7 7%


Grizzlies Vs. Timberwolves

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Grizzlies in 4 reach
Grizzlies in 5 36%
Grizzlies in 6 27%
Grizzlies in 7 21%
Timberwolves in 4 reach
Timberwolves in 5 reach
Timberwolves in 6 6%
Timberwolves in 7 10%

Warriors vs. Nuggets

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Warriors in 4 59%
Warriors in 5 29%
Warriors in 6 7%
Warriors in 7 3%
Nuggets in 4 reach
Nuggets in 5 reach
Nuggets in 6 reach
Nuggets in 7 2%

Mavericks vs. Jazz

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Mavericks in 4 reach
Mavericks in 5 20%
Mavericks in 6 19%
Mavericks in 7 21%
Jazz in 4 reach
Jazz in 5 reach
Jazz in 6 20%
Jazz in 7 21%

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